Update on 2 chance of rain, thunderstorms

Good Chefs Monday,

We need rain, but we don’t want rain between 2 and 11 p.m. this afternoon and tonight during Monday Night Football. We are tracking two chances of rain between later tonight and Wednesday morning.

Let’s review the predictions.

CHEFS MONDAY 4-7 PM:
We will see some clouds rising with a southeasterly wind increasing to 10-20 mph. A few showers and thunderstorms could move into southern sections of Kansas and Missouri. They will stay south or collapse before reaching KC. So it looks great for Monday Night Football. A few showers and thunderstorms could reach I-70 by midnight.

Jeff Penner

So for the game it will be dry with an increasing southerly wind. It will be around 80° for the bottom out, low 70s for the kick off, and mid to upper 60s at the end of the game. And, the Chiefs win 38-21!

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Jeff Penner

TUESDAY 7am:
The highest rain and thunderstorm activity will be along I-44. KC will be on the northern edge, which means a few showers and thunderstorms are possible. Northern Missouri will be dry. Lows will be in the 60s when southerly winds increase to 15-25 mph.

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Jeff Penner

TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING:
The morning system will move away, leaving our area under partly to mostly cloudy skies with highs around 80°. It will be quite windy with southerly winds of 15-30 mph, gusting to 40 mph.

A cold front will move through Nebraska creating our second chance for rain.

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Jeff Penner

WEDNESDAY MORNING:
The cold front will sweep through bringing a one to two hour period of rain and a few thunderstorms to most locations. The lows will be in the 60s.

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Jeff Penner

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING:
The cold front will brighten with larger thunderstorms along and east of the Mississippi River. This is because the system producing the cold front absorbs deeper moisture from the Gulf of Mexico as it moves. In other words, the system is recovering to the east of our region.

Highs will be in the 70s with less wind (west to northwest wind 10-15 mph).

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Jeff Penner

RAIN FORECAST TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY:
This is the only chance of rain for the next 7-10 days and at the moment it doesn’t look like we will see much rain. These amounts (about 0.25″) won’t even be enough to alleviate the dryness. It’s barely enough to wash off with fertilizer.

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Jeff Penner

When you look at our 8.54″ rainfall deficit since July 1, those rainfall forecasts are next to nothing.

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Jeff Penner

RAIN CHANCE SUMMARY:
The first chance is Tuesday from 2 a.m. to noon when a few showers and thunderstorms rush over the northern edge of the main area. A downpour or rogue thunderstorm can hit I-70 at midnight.

Second Chance takes place from midnight to 10 a.m. on Tuesday evenings and Wednesdays. This is the best chance for widespread rain and thunderstorms. The problem is that it will only last one to two hours in any location.

These two odds will add up to a trace at 0.50″. Hopefully we’re underestimating the amounts.

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Jeff Penner

Have a nice week and stay healthy.
GO CHIEF!

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